Comprehensive coverage of understanding, prevention, and risk management of extreme drought events, with examples of approaches followed in water-stressed regions

This book describes the progress made in our understanding of severe drought and explains how we can deal withand even avoidcomplete devastation brought on by such punishing events. It brings forward advanced knowledge on drought hazard analysis and management, particularly from EU-funded research projects, to assist in the development of the corresponding drought management plans. In addition, this book addresses issues of social vulnerability to drought and science-policy interfaces, which are important elements of drought management.

Divided into three sections, this book covers the diagnosis of physical processes, historic drought and the trends in historic drought, and perspectives of future drought. It takes an academic approach to risk evaluation, including characterization of drought episodes, development of indicators of risk in hydrological and agricultural systems, and analysis of the role of socio-economic instruments for risk mitigation. It also discusses the interactions that have resulted in the complex institutional framework, and highlights the importance of stakeholder involvement and awareness building for successful drought management. In addition,Drought: Science and Policy features a collection of case studies that include the description of effective measures taken in the past.

Addresses the growing issue of drought preparedness planning, monitoring, and mitigationTeaches methodologies and lessons focused on specific, drought-prone regions so the applications have more significanceProvides examples of approaches followed in water-stressed regions (river basin and national scale) with drought analyses at the pan-European scale

Drought: Science and Policy will be an invaluable reference for researchers and practitioners in the field as well as Masters students taking relevant courses in drought management and natural disaster management.

Ana Iglesias, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain.

Dionysis Assimacopoulos, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece.

Henny A.J. Van Lanen, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands.

Series Preface xi

The Series Editor Philippe Quevauviller xiii

List of Contributors xv

PART ONE: UNDERSTANDING DROUGHT AS A NATURAL HAZARD 1

1.1 Diagnosis of DroughtGenerating Processes 3
Henny A.J. Van Lanen, Anne F. Van Loon, and Lena M. Tallaksen

1.1.1 Introduction 3

1.1.2 Background 4

1.1.3 Climate drivers of drought 7

1.1.3.1 Atmospheric and oceanic drivers 7

1.1.3.2 Summer drought of 2015 8

1.1.3.3 Influence of humans (Climate change) 9

1.1.4 Soil moisture drought processes 11

1.1.4.1 Processes 11

1.1.4.2 Human influences 13

1.1.5 Hydrological drought processes (Groundwater and streamflow) 14

1.1.5.1 Groundwater 14

1.1.5.2 Streamflow 17

1.1.6 Drought propagation 19

1.1.6.1 Climatehydrology links 19

1.1.6.2 Hydrological drought typology 20

1.1.6.3 Human influences 20

1.1.7 Concluding remarks and outlook 21

1.1.7.1 Conclusions 21

1.1.7.2 Outlook 22

Acknowledgements 23

References 23

1.2 Recent Trends in Historical Drought 29
Kerstin Stahl, Lena M. Tallaksen, and Jamie Hannaford

1.2.1 Introduction 29

1.2.2 Trend analysis and data 30

1.2.2.1 Methodology 30

1.2.2.2 Data 31

1.2.3 Trends in river flow across Europe 32

1.2.3.1 Trends in observed river flow 32

1.2.3.2 Trends in modelled runoff 34

1.2.3.3 Influence of decadalscale variability on trends in long streamflow records 36

1.2.4 Discussion 38

1.2.5 Conclusions Future needs 40

1.2.5.1 Conclusions 40

1.2.5.2 Future needs 41

Acknowledgements 41

References 41

1.3 Historic Drought from Archives: Beyond the Instrumental Record 45
Emmanuel Garnier

1.3.1 Introduction 45

1.3.2 Methodology 45

1.3.2.1 The historical material 45

1.3.2.2 Rebuild the droughts of the past 47

1.3.3 United Kingdom 48

1.3.3.1 Chronological variation and severity of the UK droughts 49

1.3.3.2 The most extreme events in a 500year period 50

1.3.4 France: IledeFrance 55

1.3.4.1 Chronological variation and severity of French droughts 55

1.3.4.2 Two examples of very severe droughts 58

1.3.5 Valley of the Upper Rhine (Germany, Switzerland, France) 59

1.3.5.1 Chronological variation and severity of Rhenish droughts 60

1.3.5.2 The drought, a subject of collective memory, the Laufenstein 61

1.3.6 Conclusions 64

Acknowledgements 65

References 65

1.4 Future Drought 69
Henny A.J. Van Lanen, Christel Prudhomme, Niko Wanders, and Marjolein H.J. Van Huijgevoort

1.4.1 Introduction 69

1.4.2 Overview of studies 70

1.4.3 Assessment of future hydrological drought 71

1.4.3.1 Future drought across climate regions 71

1.4.3.2 Future streamflow drought in Europe 72

1.4.3.3 Hotspots of future drought 75

1.4.3.4 Future low flows 76

1.4.4 Human influences on future drought 78

1.4.4.1 Impact of reservoirs on future drought across the globe 78

1.4.4.2 Impact of water use on streamflow drought in Europe 80

1.4.4.3 Impact of gradual change of hydrological regime on future drought 81

1.4.5 Uncertainties in future drought 82

1.4.5.1 Uncertainty assessments 82

1.4.5.2 Impact sources of uncertainty 84

1.4.6 Conclusions Future needs 86

1.4.6.1 Conclusions 86

1.4.6.2 Future needs 87

Acknowledgements 87

References 88

PART TWO: VULNERABILITY, RISK, AND POLICY 93

2.5 On the Institutional Framework for Drought Planning and Early Action 95
Ana Iglesias, Luis Garrote, and Alfredo Granados

2.5.1 Introduction 95

2.5.2 Drought planning and water resources planning 96

2.5.3 A code for best practices: early action and risk management plans 98

2.5.4 Institutions involved in drought planning 99

2.5.4.1 Main issues and guidelines for the institutional analysis of drought planning 99

2.5.4.2 The legal framework and complexity of institutional systems 100

2.5.4.3 Examples of legal provisions in Spain 103

2.5.4.4 Key aspects of drought management in mediterranean countries 106

2.5.5 Conclusions 108

Acknowledgements 108

References 109

2.6 Indicators of Social Vulnerability to Drought 111
Gustavo Naumann, Hugo Carrão, and Paulo Barbosa

2.6.1 Introduction 111

2.6.2 Theoretical framework 112

2.6.3 Selection of policyrelevant variables 115

2.6.3.1 Normalisation of variables to a common baseline 117

2.6.3.2 Composite indicator of drought vulnerability (weighting and aggregation) 118

2.6.3.3 Sensitivity analysis and model validation 122

2.6.4 Application: Drought risk assessment in Latin America 123

References 124

2.7 Drought Vulnerability Under Climate Change: A Case Study in La Plata Basin 127
Alvaro SordoWard, María D. Bejarano, Luis Garrote, Victor Asenjo, and Paola Bianucci

2.7.1 Introduction 127

2.7.2 Methods 128

2.7.2.1 Framework 128

2.7.2.2 Data and regional extent 129

2.7.2.3 Data analysis 130

2.7.2.4 Drought indicator used 132

2.7.2.5 Limitations of the methodology 132

2.7.3 Results and discussion 133

2.7.3.1 Drought characterisation: Changes in rainfall 133

2.7.3.2 Drought characterisation: Changes in SPEI drought indicator 134

2.7.3.3 Graphical user interface as a tool for drought management 140

2.7.4 Conclusions 140

Acknowledgements 144

References 144

2.8 Drought Insurance 147
Teresa Maestro, Alberto Garrido, and María Bielza

2.8.1 Introduction 147

2.8.2 Main difficulties and challenges in developing drought insurance 148

2.8.3 Types of drought insurance 149

2.8.4 Drought indemnitybased insurance 150

2.8.5 Drought indexbased insurance 150

2.8.5.1 Meteorologicalbased index insurance 154

2.8.5.2 Remote sensingbased index insurance 155

2.8.5.3 Hydrological drought index insurance 155

2.8.6 Conclusions 157

Acknowledgements 157

References 157

PART THREE: DROUGHT MANAGEMENT EXPERIENCES AND LINKS TO STAKEHOLDERS 163

3.9 Drought and Water Management in The Netherlands 165
Wouter Wolters, Henny A.J. Van Lanen, and Francien van Luijn

3.9.1 General context 165

3.9.1.1 Physical and socioeconomic systems 165

3.9.1.2 Scenarios 167

3.9.1.3 Drought characteristics: Frequency and severity 168

3.9.1.4 Current management framework 169

3.9.2 Drought risk and mitigation 170

3.9.2.1 Vulnerability to drought 170

3.9.2.2 Existing framework for drought management 171

3.9.2.3 Stakeholder involvement in drought management 174

3.9.2.4 Example of the 2015 drought monitoring and management 175

3.9.2.5 Comparison of the 2015 drought with 2003 177

3.9.2.6 Responses to past drought events and assessment of their effects on drought impact mitigation 178

3.9.3 Conclusions Future needs 179

3.9.3.1 Conclusions 179

3.9.3.2 Preparing for the future through establishing service levels 180

3.9.3.3 International dimension 180

References 181

3.10 Improving Drought Preparedness in Portugal 183
Susana Dias, Vanda Acácio, Carlo Bifulco, and Francisco Rego

3.10.1 Local context 183

3.10.1.1 Climate and land use 183

3.10.1.2 Water resources use and consumption 184

3.10.1.3 Past drought events, impacts, and forecasted trends 186

3.10.1.4 Lessons learned from the 20042006 drought event 188

3.10.2 Current approach to drought monitoring and management 189

3.10.2.1 Drought monitoring systems 189

3.10.2.2 Existing framework for drought management 189

3.10.3 Improving drought preparedness and drought management 190

3.10.3.1 Stakeholder involvement in drought management 190

3.10.3.2 Vulnerability to drought: Analysis of SPIs as indicators of future drought impacts 191

3.10.3.3 Strengthening national drought information systems 193

3.10.3.4 Policy gaps and measures to improve drought preparedness and management 193

3.10.4 Conclusions 195

Acknowledgements 195

References 196

3.11 Drought Management in the Po River Basin, Italy 201
Dario Musolino, Claudia Vezzani, and Antonio Massarutto

3.11.1 General context 201

3.11.1.1 Physical and socioeconomic system 201

3.11.1.2 Drought characteristics and water availability 203

3.11.2 Drought risk and mitigation 206

3.11.2.1 Vulnerability to drought 206

3.11.2.2 The framework for drought management: Current situation and ongoing changes 208

3.11.2.3 Policy responses to the 2003 drought event: A qualitative assessment 210

3.11.3 Conclusions 213

References 214

3.12 Experiences in Proactive and Participatory Drought Planning and Management in the Jucar River Basin, Spain 217
Joaquin Andreu, David Haro, Abel Solera, and Javier Paredes

3.12.1 Introduction 217

3.12.2 Droughts characterisation 219

3.12.2.1 Past droughts 219

3.12.2.2 Future droughts 223

3.12.3 Methods for drought vulnerability and risk assessment 223

3.12.3.1 Assessment of vulnerability during the planning phase 224

3.12.3.2 Assessment of vulnerability during the management phase (Real time) 224

3.12.3.3 Use of DSSs for drought management in real time 226

3.12.4 Proactive and participatory drought management 228

3.12.4.1 Culture of adaptation to droughts in the JRBD 228

3.12.4.2 Institutional, legal, and normative framework for drought planning and management 230

3.12.4.3 Measures included in the SDP 232

3.12.4.4 Responses to past drought events and assessment of their effects on drought impact mitigation 232

3.12.5 Conclusions 234

Acknowledgements 235

References 235

3.13 Drought Risk and Management in Syros, Greece 239
Dionysis Assimacopoulos and Eleni Kampragou

3.13.1 Introduction 239

3.13.2 Droughts in Syros 240

3.13.2.1 Past droughts 240

3.13.2.2 Future droughts 242

3.13.2.3 Key messages 242

3.13.3 Drought risk and mitigation 243

3.13.4 Lessons learnt the need for participatory drought management 246

Acknowledgements 247

References 248

Index 251